Droneflyers.com takes part is helping the Consumer Technology Association work out their projects for the future. As a result, we have access to the final number they come up with in terms of US and Worldwide Drone Sales. If you desire a more detailed or nuanced opinion/report you can contact me for a custom “reading of the tea leaves”. However, here are some of the basics – note that CTA figures represent wholesale pricing from the manufacturers to the dealers. You could add 20 to 30% to figure on the total retail dollars.

US Market – Drones over 250 grams (most all current serious camera models) are expected to fall from 40% growth in 2018 to 13% yearly growth in 2020. Furthermore, a projected drop in pricing means that only a 5% increase in revenue is projected for 2020 – down from a 30% increase in 2018.

Worldwide Market – The worldwide market is less saturated, so the forecast is for 43% revenue growth in 2018, dropping to 10% in 2020.

However, in both cases the market growth in revenue is projected to be almost ZERO in 2021 – that is, at that point the market will likely be saturated and sales will stabilize and/or increase or decrease slightly…both worldwide and in the USA.

Other Markets for Drone Related Services will likely grow. Accessories, third party apps, consulting, piloting and other smaller services and add-ons are not mentioned in the report.

In Summary, the first stages of the Drone Boom are coming to an end. The future is never easy to predict – however it remains possible that additional breakthroughs will be made which allow for sales increases based on higher per-sale averages. Most of the current projects are based on a slight lowering of prices each year – while we have seen just the opposite in the past year. Experienced drone users have been actually paying more than earlier for advanced models like the Mavic Pro and the Phantom 4 Professional. However, the drone manufacturers face a similar problem as other technology companies in that once a customer owns a drone which is “more than good enough”, they may not be tempted to rush out and buy the next new model.

These projections also do not include the middle and higher ends of the commercial market – ag, security, etc. – which could add substantially to the total revenues.

Two relevant charts are above (click to enlarge) .

Note – the CTA is the org. that puts on CES – Consumer Electronics Show – in Las Vegas.

Best Selling Camera Drones on Amazon – Summer 2017

Presented below. Our rankings are based on various methods since Amazon often classifies camera drones into different categories, hence differing rankings. However, by cross referencing and checking other industry sources we develop the best possible guesses as to the overall market.

1. DJI Spark – (all models and kits) – Amazon Link – DJI Store Link
2. DJI Mavic Pro (all models and kits) – Amazon Link – DJI Store Link
(#1 and #2 could be reversed – in all probability, Spark has higher units, but Mavic higher $$)
3. Phantom 3 Standard – Amazon Link – DJI Store Link
4. Phantom 4 (original fixed focus model) – Amazon Link – DJI Store Link (refurb only)
5. Phantom 4 Professional (all models) – Amazon Link – DJI Store Link
6. Phantom 3 Professional (discontinued but stock still available from various sellers) – Amazon Link – DJI Store Link (refurb only)

Note – there is a large gap in-between the top 6 above and those below – however, we wanted to include other brands in order to give consumers the relative positioning of sales. The Parrot FPV model is doing OK, however the Yuneec and the Autel seem to be slipping further down in ranking from our earlier articles. Our opinion is that the consumer drone market is driven largely by new product introductions…and the DJI Spark and Mavic Pro represent that. The Phantom 3 Standard continues to sell only because it is the only full featured major brand which comes in below the $450 price point, making it affordable to a much larger target market.

Parrot FPV BeBop 2

7. Parrot BeBop 2 FPV Kit – Amazon Link
8. Autel X-Star Premium – Amazon Link
9. Yuneec Typhoon H (All Models) – – Amazon Link

Yuneec Typhoon H

Note – some of the models above are available refurbished – often direct from the manufacturer and/or with full warranty. Some of these are good deals – some less so. To check on DJI (direct) available Refurbs you can go to this page on their site.

Overall, the summer of 2017 seems to represent a bit of a lull in drone sales with the exception of the Spark, due to its recent introduction. It is also possible that some segments of the market are approaching saturation and/or clashing with the reality of drone rules and regulations. Some hobbyists are complaining that it is difficult to find places to fly due to airport siting, population density and other such reasons. At the same time, the new possibilities in commercial operation (Part 107) should result in some growth for certain companies and models. As in previous years, much of the tale will be told by sales in the November/December/January time period.

Although we don’t yet have firm predictions, our off-the-cuff guess is that the DJI Spark will dominate the holiday sales due to its positioning as a truly portable consumer drone. Future articles will explore the Fall/Winter sales projections in greater detail.

The Syma X20 is a new micro-drone from the well known “toy grade” company. Thousands of drone pilots have learned their “sticks” on Syma Drones and the polish in this model shows why.

For a price of $25-$29 (prices fluctuate) , this is a great value for those interested in learning the hobby. Note – the Syma X20 is not a “nano sized” Drone…we do not suggest nana drones because they are too small to properly orientate and operate. The X20 is the perfect size for indoor and outdoor (low wind) practice. It has advanced features such as the ability to hover decently – as well as automatic takeoff and landing.

This video will tell you most of what you need to know about the Syma X20.
Here are the links in case you want to add an X2 to your collection:
Amazon Link
Banggood – Worldwide Shipping

Video at Youtube:

Drone Specs:
Dimension: 4 x 4 x 1 inch
Weight: 0.8 oz
Operating Temperature: 32° F to 104° F
Control Distance: 66 ft / 20 m
Battery Capacity: 180 mAh (Built-in)
Flight Time: approx. 5 minutes

The War is over – at least for the foreseeable future. DJI has sewn up the Consumer Drone Market in a way that makes them untouchable for at least the next 5 years. While some of my fellow analysts will cry and moan “wrong”, DJI may have as much as 80% (and growing) of the “non-toy” under 2K Consumer Drone Business. That leaves the other 20% to all the other makers combined. Many of these would-be competitors have already closed the doors or shrunk to nothing. Some of them never introduced their products in bulk. A short list of the losers (USA centered, but probably accurate many other places, $400-$2,000), goes like this:
Walkera, 3DR, Xiro, eHang, Autel, Yuneec, Parrot, Upair, GoPro, Blade, Hubsan, Hexo+, Airdog and many more.

Putting the numbers in perspective, if DJI is going to sell a million drones in the USA (estimate), Canada and Mexico this year, only three of those companies have the possibility of 5% of this number (50,000 units). These companies are Yuneec, Parrot and Autel. All three companies have announced staff reductions and, according to our internal calculations, are losing market share and struggling to even break even. In the world of high-tech, unit counts such as 50K are not true mass production and therefore have a much higher cost structure.

Why? How? It’s an interesting exercise in competition and engineering to summarize how one company came to dominate the field. We have already written extensive articles on DJI and GoPro as well as a number of pieces touching on the “Drone sales wars” – however, since the war is over we felt a short history lesson might be in order.

Summary – Size Matters and Listening to the Market

The world of technology is moving quickly. A company like Tesla can now design a self-driving car – an item infinitely more complicated than a consumer drone – and produce it within approx. 3 years. With consumer drones, the development cycle for DJI is probably about one year…but, the big difference here is that it takes a smaller company 2 years to come up with a “so-so” new drone while DJI has, in the shorter time period, come up with something truly revolutionary (Mavic Pro, for example). To accomplish this, vast amounts of capital and credit are needed. DJI, given their reputation, has no problem raising money AND their cash flow is such that they often get paid for the completed quadcopters before they have to pay for the components (even many large customers prepay DJI for product!).

DJI Mavic Pro – Portable Drone

Another secret ingredient is people. DJI usually hires only the best for their higher level jobs in engineering, design and marketing. The smaller makers may be able to attract some dreamers, but DJI has the advantage of years of IP (design and engineering problems solved long ago), so their engineers have a head start in years in terms of the total product package.

DJI makes a lot of mistakes – but most of them are small and can be fixed in software. For the past couple years they have gotten most hardware right the first time…not unlike most smartphone and computer makers. This is no small accomplishment because making a consumer drone is actually harder than making most computers…since you can buy off-the-shelf components and operating systems for a desktop or laptop.

When I started following DJI in 2014 I noticed that they, unlike most fast growing companies, actually listened to consumers and made additions to features which were requested. Some of these changes were not easy – for example, the opening up of the Drone Operating System with an SDK (allowing other developers to create software that extended the uses) and the addition of Intelligent Flight Modes (point of interest, waypoint, etc.).

Organized, Chaotic but Eyes on the Prize [Read more…]

The task of measuring Consumer Camera Drone Sales on Amazon is getting more and more difficult, as these drones are often placed in the wrong categories – therefore the wrong sales rank! However, with a couple hours of work, we are able to get a good guess at what is selling – and what is not.

In general, our list only covers consumer camera drones with stabilized cameras – in the $400-$1800 price range. This covers the vast majority of current serious drone purchases (toys are another story).

The short story here is that DJI continues to dominate. In fact, things seem to have gotten worse for the two former competitors, Yuneec and Autel, neither of which will make this list. Please note that we add comments and opinion in this listing.

#1 – The DJI Mavic Pro still appears to be the largest selling Camera Drone on Amazon. This could change once a large supply of #2 becomes available.

#2. DJI Spark Fly More Package – this is DJI’s new super-compact drone…however this package contains a number of extras which expand the capabilities. This unit is also available in multiple colors. Note: It remains to be seen if Spark has the “staying power” of Mavic Pro or of the Phantom lines once the initial early adopters buy theirs.

#3. Phantom 3 Standard – this is still less than $500 a appeals to the camera drone buyer who wants the best camera and capabilities available at that price point.  [Read more…]