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Counting Camera Drones using Forum Participation

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How many camera drones are being sold? Which brands? At what price? At what profit? Most all of these questions are difficult to answer since the industry consists of private companies – most of whom do not offer guidance or share numbers.

Droneflyers.com has used a number of methods to make educated guesses – including Amazon.com rankings, CES (Consumer Technology Association – CTA) figures and other indicators. To these we can add the more informal “buzz” such as whether a company has laid off large amounts of stuff, delayed updates and new products, etc.

This article will put forward yet another way of counting consumer camera drones – that of using participation and readership of drone forums as a guide. Combining this with additional facts and fuzzy logic, we have been able to come up with some guesses as to the US 2017 drone sales. Note – our total sales number is based on the CTA estimate of approx. 1 Billion dollars in US (wholesale) consumer drones over 250 grams.

For this exercise we used the popular forums such as Phantompilots.com and Mavicpilots.com, assuming that most who visited such forums either owned or were in the market for those particular models. We took measurements over various times and days and averaged them out. As an example, the graphic below shows a small part of the spreadsheet:

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NEW – DJI Phantom 3 SE – The Best Budget 4K Drone?

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The DJI Phantom 3 series, first released in April of 2015, set a new standard for what was expected of a consumer-level Camera drone. Even at the original price of $1259, the Phantom 3 Pro was head and shoulders above anything in its class. The P3 series is still widely used today – although officially all models other than the $499 “Standard” (lowest end) model have been discontinued.

However, DJI has decided to introduce a new (updated) model of the Phantom 3 to the US Market.
The new model is called the Phantom 3 SE , sells for $599 and is at this link:
https://goo.gl/CjsT2c

DJI has been very quiet about the launch of this new model – in fact, I had to email the company to find out if it truly was a new model or just a renaming of an older model which was called the “Phantom 3 4K”. They assured me that this is a model which is updated and upgraded and hasn’t been sold in the US until now.

For that price you get a top notch 4K capable camera, the VPS (ground sensing) system and a new upgraded wireless connection which increases the range to as much as 4KM. Note – we suggest cutting these maximums by 50% for your use in most normal situations….but, realistically, even 1 KM is fine for most of what consumer camera drones are used for.
Some other basic specs:
25 minute flight time
Dual GPS (American/Russian)
Video up to 4K 30fps – 60MB Bitrate
3-Axis Gimbal

Basic Features

What it does NOT have is the “lightbridge” DJI system, which is an advanced wireless protocol…with longer and more reliable range (in many cases).

The P3 models are quite mature and reliable and many pilots may not need the advanced features in more expensive models (obstacle avoidance, etc.). Commercial pilots (Part 107) often desire a “backup bird” in case something happens to their primary camera drone. The Phantom 3 SE seems perfect for such uses.

The Phantom SE (Special Edition) is a well kept secret – but it shouldn’t be. You can buy a cheaper Phantom (DJI Standard…refurb and/or new is $399 to $499) – but you would be missing out on a number of features, most importantly the extended range and better camera.

One might say this is the “Toyota Corolla” of consumer camera drones. It does the job which is asked of it and is reliable and a good value. The Image Quality is on a par with the Phantom 4 (plain) and exceeds that of the Mavic Pro and Spark.

With the purchase of a 2nd battery and a case/backpack you’ll be ready to go “pro” for about $700 brand new.

Note – at the time of this writing the Phantom 3 SE is not listed on Amazon, so you’ll probably be best off ordering direct from DJI at this link. Note that the downloads and specs tabs on that page will offer further details on this new budget 4K model.

Phantom 3 SE (Special Edition)

DJI Spark Camera Drone – Is it for You?

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Droneflyers.com received a review model of the DJI Spark Camera Drone before the official launch. We therefore have had a few months to put the model through its paces and determine the pros and cons of this ultra-portable quadcopter. Note that we have our initial review in this article as well as a number of Spark videos at our youtube channel. These may answer many of your questions, however the below is a summary of our thoughts at the present time. We will present most of the benefits and features in the beginning of the article and list out the major “cons” (what it doesn’t do, etc.) at the end.

What is Spark and who is it for?

The DJI Spark is the first mass-market ultra-portable drone that still has most of the features of the larger and heavier models. These include a camera gimbal, front and bottom sensors, dual GPS, FPV, an advanced App and an array of photographic and other options. Up until the Spark, the closest model to this ideal was the Parrot BeBop 2 – which has many of the above features, but lacks a gimbal (mechanical camera stabilizer) – instead using Electronic Image Stabilization to remove vibrations and other unwanted movement from the video(s). Most experts will agree that the mechanical (Spark) camera gimbal results in better overall video than EIS.

The DJI Spark is available with or without an option R/C controller. When purchased without the R/C controller, the range is limited and the model must be controlled using “virtual sticks” which are on the screen. Those who have no experience with either virtual or real “sticks” will likely need a lot of practice (and reading) to become familiar with operating the Spark via Mobile Device. Still, in our opinion, the Spark represents a truly useable camera drone/mobile device combo….something that we feel is lacking with most earlier models.

Adding the R/C controller makes the Spark a much more capable device – extending the range, the control “feel” and other options enough to make it a totally different experience. The R/C controller also features a “Sport” mode – which turns the normally tame Spark into a racer/FPV model that you’ll enjoy flying around the local fields. It can also integrate with the DJI Googles – giving you the full FPV experience (our DJI goggle review is here).  [Read more…]

CTA Forecasts Drone Sales to Stabilize

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Droneflyers.com takes part is helping the Consumer Technology Association work out their projects for the future. As a result, we have access to the final number they come up with in terms of US and Worldwide Drone Sales. If you desire a more detailed or nuanced opinion/report you can contact me for a custom “reading of the tea leaves”. However, here are some of the basics – note that CTA figures represent wholesale pricing from the manufacturers to the dealers. You could add 20 to 30% to figure on the total retail dollars.

US Market – Drones over 250 grams (most all current serious camera models) are expected to fall from 40% growth in 2018 to 13% yearly growth in 2020. Furthermore, a projected drop in pricing means that only a 5% increase in revenue is projected for 2020 – down from a 30% increase in 2018.

Worldwide Market – The worldwide market is less saturated, so the forecast is for 43% revenue growth in 2018, dropping to 10% in 2020.

However, in both cases the market growth in revenue is projected to be almost ZERO in 2021 – that is, at that point the market will likely be saturated and sales will stabilize and/or increase or decrease slightly…both worldwide and in the USA.

Other Markets for Drone Related Services will likely grow. Accessories, third party apps, consulting, piloting and other smaller services and add-ons are not mentioned in the report.

In Summary, the first stages of the Drone Boom are coming to an end. The future is never easy to predict – however it remains possible that additional breakthroughs will be made which allow for sales increases based on higher per-sale averages. Most of the current projects are based on a slight lowering of prices each year – while we have seen just the opposite in the past year. Experienced drone users have been actually paying more than earlier for advanced models like the Mavic Pro and the Phantom 4 Professional. However, the drone manufacturers face a similar problem as other technology companies in that once a customer owns a drone which is “more than good enough”, they may not be tempted to rush out and buy the next new model.

These projections also do not include the middle and higher ends of the commercial market – ag, security, etc. – which could add substantially to the total revenues.

Two relevant charts are above (click to enlarge) .

Note – the CTA is the org. that puts on CES – Consumer Electronics Show – in Las Vegas.

2013 vs. 2017 – How Much Camera Drone tech do you get for your money?

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The advances in consumer Camera Drones have come quite quickly, outpacing similar technologies such as smart phones, computers and flat screen TV’s. As one example, an iPhone 3 in 2009 sold for a similar price as an iPhone 6 in 2016 (when inflation is considered). Of course, the newer iPhones are much more powerful and capable due to increased processing power.

When it comes to consumer camera drones, the price/performance (value) evolution is much more drastic. As an example, we will use the first Phantom/Gimbal combination to illustrate the point.

Mid-2013 Consumer Camera Drone Example

The first models of the Phantom (Phantom 1) were followed by an optional gimbal (stabilizer) – designed for the GoPro Hero 3 models. The gimbal was named “Zenmuse H3-2D” the “2D” meaning it was a 2-Axis gimbal. The Gimbal sold for $700 US, however existing Phantom owners also had to buy a PMU (power management unit) as well as the GoPro 3 Camera. A basic unit would therefore be:
$650 Phantom 1
$780 – Gimbal with PMU
$400+ – GoPro Hero 3
———
$1830

This setup required installation and tuning – the Phantom had to be opened up to install the wires and the PMU. Having this done by a dealer…plus a couple extra batteries, would bring the minimum price up to approx. 2K. [Read more…]

Best Selling Camera Drones on Amazon – Summer 2017

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Best Selling Camera Drones on Amazon – Summer 2017

Presented below. Our rankings are based on various methods since Amazon often classifies camera drones into different categories, hence differing rankings. However, by cross referencing and checking other industry sources we develop the best possible guesses as to the overall market.

1. DJI Spark – (all models and kits) – Amazon Link – DJI Store Link
2. DJI Mavic Pro (all models and kits) – Amazon Link – DJI Store Link
(#1 and #2 could be reversed – in all probability, Spark has higher units, but Mavic higher $$)
3. Phantom 3 Standard – Amazon Link – DJI Store Link
4. Phantom 4 (original fixed focus model) – Amazon Link – DJI Store Link (refurb only)
5. Phantom 4 Professional (all models) – Amazon Link – DJI Store Link
6. Phantom 3 Professional (discontinued but stock still available from various sellers) – Amazon Link – DJI Store Link (refurb only)

Note – there is a large gap in-between the top 6 above and those below – however, we wanted to include other brands in order to give consumers the relative positioning of sales. The Parrot FPV model is doing OK, however the Yuneec and the Autel seem to be slipping further down in ranking from our earlier articles. Our opinion is that the consumer drone market is driven largely by new product introductions…and the DJI Spark and Mavic Pro represent that. The Phantom 3 Standard continues to sell only because it is the only full featured major brand which comes in below the $450 price point, making it affordable to a much larger target market.

Parrot FPV BeBop 2

7. Parrot BeBop 2 FPV Kit – Amazon Link
8. Autel X-Star Premium – Amazon Link
9. Yuneec Typhoon H (All Models) – – Amazon Link

Yuneec Typhoon H

Note – some of the models above are available refurbished – often direct from the manufacturer and/or with full warranty. Some of these are good deals – some less so. To check on DJI (direct) available Refurbs you can go to this page on their site.

Overall, the summer of 2017 seems to represent a bit of a lull in drone sales with the exception of the Spark, due to its recent introduction. It is also possible that some segments of the market are approaching saturation and/or clashing with the reality of drone rules and regulations. Some hobbyists are complaining that it is difficult to find places to fly due to airport siting, population density and other such reasons. At the same time, the new possibilities in commercial operation (Part 107) should result in some growth for certain companies and models. As in previous years, much of the tale will be told by sales in the November/December/January time period.

Although we don’t yet have firm predictions, our off-the-cuff guess is that the DJI Spark will dominate the holiday sales due to its positioning as a truly portable consumer drone. Future articles will explore the Fall/Winter sales projections in greater detail.

InterDrone Trade Show – Las Vegas

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InterDrone Industry Trade Show – September, 2017 – Las Vegas

InterDrone is one of the top US drone industry trade shows. Classes, Seminars, Keynotes and Exhibits….plus networking. It is a must-attend for those who want to quickly get an idea of where the industry is…and where it is going.

Show Announcement : After an impressive show last year (3,518 delegates from 54 nations and rave reviews) InterDrone returns to Las Vegas Sept. 6-8 in a premier location.  It will feature 125+ sessions for engineers, software developers, executives, investors, regulators and commercial drone “buyers and flyers” in more than a dozen vertical market segments. Three distinct tracks define the event in 2017:  Drone TechCon for builders; Drone Enterprise for those using drones for commercial activities; and Drone Cinema where image quality and range are paramount.  4,000+ attendees from 6 continents and 180+ exhibitors. Receive a $100 discount off the prevailing rate of the 3-day pass by inserting the code FLYIT when prompted at www.interdrone.com

Speakers this year include the head of the FAA and Intels’ CEO – World Class!

http://www.interdrone.com/

Syma X20 Toy Grade Drone – First Look and Review

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The Syma X20 is a new micro-drone from the well known “toy grade” company. Thousands of drone pilots have learned their “sticks” on Syma Drones and the polish in this model shows why.

For a price of $25-$29 (prices fluctuate) , this is a great value for those interested in learning the hobby. Note – the Syma X20 is not a “nano sized” Drone…we do not suggest nana drones because they are too small to properly orientate and operate. The X20 is the perfect size for indoor and outdoor (low wind) practice. It has advanced features such as the ability to hover decently – as well as automatic takeoff and landing.

This video will tell you most of what you need to know about the Syma X20.
Here are the links in case you want to add an X2 to your collection:
Amazon Link
Banggood – Worldwide Shipping

Video at Youtube:

Drone Specs:
Dimension: 4 x 4 x 1 inch
Weight: 0.8 oz
Operating Temperature: 32° F to 104° F
Control Distance: 66 ft / 20 m
Battery Capacity: 180 mAh (Built-in)
Flight Time: approx. 5 minutes

How DJI won the Consumer Drone War

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The War is over – at least for the foreseeable future. DJI has sewn up the Consumer Drone Market in a way that makes them untouchable for at least the next 5 years. While some of my fellow analysts will cry and moan “wrong”, DJI may have as much as 80% (and growing) of the “non-toy” under 2K Consumer Drone Business. That leaves the other 20% to all the other makers combined. Many of these would-be competitors have already closed the doors or shrunk to nothing. Some of them never introduced their products in bulk. A short list of the losers (USA centered, but probably accurate many other places, $400-$2,000), goes like this:
Walkera, 3DR, Xiro, eHang, Autel, Yuneec, Parrot, Upair, GoPro, Blade, Hubsan, Hexo+, Airdog and many more.

Putting the numbers in perspective, if DJI is going to sell a million drones in the USA (estimate), Canada and Mexico this year, only three of those companies have the possibility of 5% of this number (50,000 units). These companies are Yuneec, Parrot and Autel. All three companies have announced staff reductions and, according to our internal calculations, are losing market share and struggling to even break even. In the world of high-tech, unit counts such as 50K are not true mass production and therefore have a much higher cost structure.

Why? How? It’s an interesting exercise in competition and engineering to summarize how one company came to dominate the field. We have already written extensive articles on DJI and GoPro as well as a number of pieces touching on the “Drone sales wars” – however, since the war is over we felt a short history lesson might be in order.

Summary – Size Matters and Listening to the Market

The world of technology is moving quickly. A company like Tesla can now design a self-driving car – an item infinitely more complicated than a consumer drone – and produce it within approx. 3 years. With consumer drones, the development cycle for DJI is probably about one year…but, the big difference here is that it takes a smaller company 2 years to come up with a “so-so” new drone while DJI has, in the shorter time period, come up with something truly revolutionary (Mavic Pro, for example). To accomplish this, vast amounts of capital and credit are needed. DJI, given their reputation, has no problem raising money AND their cash flow is such that they often get paid for the completed quadcopters before they have to pay for the components (even many large customers prepay DJI for product!).

DJI Mavic Pro – Portable Drone

Another secret ingredient is people. DJI usually hires only the best for their higher level jobs in engineering, design and marketing. The smaller makers may be able to attract some dreamers, but DJI has the advantage of years of IP (design and engineering problems solved long ago), so their engineers have a head start in years in terms of the total product package.

DJI makes a lot of mistakes – but most of them are small and can be fixed in software. For the past couple years they have gotten most hardware right the first time…not unlike most smartphone and computer makers. This is no small accomplishment because making a consumer drone is actually harder than making most computers…since you can buy off-the-shelf components and operating systems for a desktop or laptop.

When I started following DJI in 2014 I noticed that they, unlike most fast growing companies, actually listened to consumers and made additions to features which were requested. Some of these changes were not easy – for example, the opening up of the Drone Operating System with an SDK (allowing other developers to create software that extended the uses) and the addition of Intelligent Flight Modes (point of interest, waypoint, etc.).

Organized, Chaotic but Eyes on the Prize [Read more…]

DIY Quadcopters & Drones – Instructions for Hobbyists.

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This article will provide basic instructions, advice, links and other information for those who wish to embark on DIY Quadcopter or Drone building. We will discuss the parts needed for a quadcopter and provide recommendations for various quadcopter (DIY Drones) parts lists. Most of our links are to Amazon because it is easy for many people to order – however, if you live somewhere else in the world you can get the same or similar parts from Banggood (Chinese site with warehouses all over the world).

Note: many other online articles on this subject are very old (possibly dated). Much has changed in the world of drones and this mid-2017 article will reflect those upgrades and changes.

Question #1 – Should you Build your own Drone?

Back in 2012-2013, the answer for those who wanted a reasonably priced quadcopter would probably be YES. However, the market has changed and now you can purchase a fully assembled and working drone for the same or less money than building one. Let me lay out some of the reasons why you should – or should not – consider DIY for your Quadcopter.

  1. I am a researcher and interested in learning how to build and program drones and controllers so that I can use that knowledge to either enter or enhance a career. YES, you should consider a DIY Machine. 
  2. Drones look really cool and I want to see if flying them and/or taking pictures or videos is something worthwhile. My wish it to eventually make money (or just appreciate landscapes, etc.) from Aerial Video and Photography. NO, you should probably follow the traditional method of learning about drones and buy RTF models (see our guides, comparisons, etc.).
  3.  I am very mechanically minded and have some knowledge of electronics – and know one end of a soldering iron from the other – I know how to use a multimeter and, frankly, enjoy learning and building things. YES, you should consider DIY.
  4.  I am “all thumbs” when it comes to detailed work, troubleshooting and lack patience. I just want things to work…or to be able to contact a dealer or manufacturer if they don’t. NO, you should follow the traditional route. See links at the bottom of this page.
  5.  I caught the FPV/Racing bug (racing through hoops, obstacles, etc.) and want to create a custom machine that can fit my needs better than what is on the market. MAYBE you should DIY, but you also have the option of a middle ground…buying a machine which is assembled and works and then modifying it. “Mods” are considered a big part of the DIY part of the Drone Hobby and you can find forums, articles and instructions on just about any aspect of them.

Ok, So what Type/Size of Machine should I DIY Build?

I assume you are reading this article because you haven’t already had vast experience in the hobby. This being the case, there are two main types (classes/sizes) of Drones which you might consider for your first DIY Quadcopter build. These are:

  1. The “350-450” class of machine, which are about the size of the popular DJI Phantom or a bit larger. These machines are large enough to easily carry a camera, see (visually) at great distances and often include a GPS module…meaning they can be controlled easier than machines without any positioning equipment.
  2. The FPV/Racing type of machine – usually in the “250” or less size range. These are for “park flying” where the idea is to actively pilot the craft closer to the ground and faster. Most of them lack GPS, but there is an almost endless variety of frames, motors and other parts to build them.

[Read more…]