Droneflyers.com

2018 is a Drone Bargain Hunters Paradise!

The Past

Droneflyers.com is now over 5 years old. It seems like just yesterday when this site started due to my interest in the new “flying robots” which seemed to be finally hitting the mainstream. Companies like Parrot and Walkera can be credited for developing some of the first RTF (ready to fly) quadcopters, although whether they were truly “ready to fly” is another story! As a point of trivia, this site was started a year before that time (beginning of 2012) by Kerry Garrison, who now owns a large Drone retail company. He sold his existing site (ARDRONETIPS.COM) to us – which was rolled into Droneflyers.com.

The market for Drones sped up quickly and they started selling like the proverbial hotcakes. The reader should keep in mind that most of these drones didn’t work very well. There was no true “Camera Drone” available at consumer prices, so hobbyists at the time were trying everything – from strapping GoPro cameras to their AR Drones to building their own drones (which, more often than not, crashed early and often). Toy Grade machines dominated the consumer market (Hubsan, Walkera, Syma) because a hobbyist would tolerate losing $40-$100 in a crash whereas losing $1K plus wasn’t in the cards. This all changed with the release of two “watershed” models that introduced a level of reliability and capabilities that were formerly unheard of. A third release solidified the consumer drone market into a multi-billion dollar business. These stepping stones, in our opinion, were:
1. The Phantom (1) – introduced a truly mass-produced GPS equipped (the key to success!) RTF drone – which could carry a GoPro or other lightweight camera.
2. The Phantom 2 Vision Plus (V2) was arguably the first reliable RTF drone which was complete with camera, gimbal, smart battery and software which allowed the pilot to control the camera functions.
3. The Phantom 3 (2015) perfected the “consumer camera class” of drones with a 4K camera, longer range and improved software. In a sense, the Phantom 3 is similar to the Boeing 737 in that, even years later, it is not dated in terms of functionality.

If you want to delve further into the history of the manufacturer of these models (DJI), check out these articles:
https://www.droneflyers.com/dji-dominates-world-drones-aerial-robotics/
https://www.droneflyers.com/dji-won-consumer-drone-war/

The Present…and the Bargains!

After years of tremendous growth, the consumer drone market is slowing. Many of the original hobbyists have purchased newer models and are therefore not looking for the “next new thing” as they were during the boom years. In addition, companies like DJI, Yuneec and Parrot built up both their hopes and production – creating a surplus of drones which can be a Gold Mine for both hobbyists and those looking for a new consumer-level drone. Add to this the very reasonable prices of some NEW drone models and it completes the “special sauce” which 2018 is serving up.

Example One: New Drone RTF Bargain – DJI produced a compact model called the Spark which has capabilities that should satisfy many drone users. A complete kit, which was $699 when introduced a short time ago, is now down to $466. on Amazon:
http://amzn.to/2Gf5Bx2

Example Two: Parrot New and Refurbs – Parrot missed out on a lot of the growth in the consumer drone market by focusing on their toy models…and not listening to consumers when it came to their higher-end camera drones. As a result they found themselves having to lay off a vast number of drone employees..and with quite a bit of stock of older models. Most of their current models can also be found at 1/2 or less of the original prices – BeBop 2, for example, as well as toy grade models. Older models are as low as 75% or more off their original prices! Techrabbit (via eBay) sells a refurished AR Drone for $49.99 – this is 90% off the original price – https://goo.gl/tMei6B

Parrot FPV BeBop 2 Kit

NOTE: Examples given are just that – examples – there are a mutitude of great deals at present but the buyer should know exactly what they are buying. Many of these bargains are suitable only for hobbyists…defined as those who may want to hack, modify or experiment with their drones. Others are fine for even the newbie drone pilot…but, again, please research the model(s) you are looking at and make certain your requirements are met.

Below are additional examples (links) to low priced models which might suit your fancy.

Parrot Swing Refurb – $21.99:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/Parrot-Swing-Quadcopter-Camera-Drone-with-Plane-Mode/152926200054
Parrot Bebop (1) NEW – $159 (was $499 originally):
https://www.ebay.com/itm/Brand-New-Parrot-Bebop-Quadcopter-Camera-Drone-14MP-Full-HD-1080p-Red-Black/182950826266
Yuneec Breeze – NEW $149. (introduced at about $500):
https://www.walmart.com/ip/Yuneec-Breeze-Drone-With-4K-Camera-Bluetooth-Controller-Included/902348798
Yuneec Typhoon H with RealSense $1149 (first introduced at $1899-$1999):
http://amzn.to/2FPcd7Q
DJI Spark $337 – New (introduced recently at $499):
http://amzn.to/2tJHNyR

Occassional Drone Bargains can also be found at:
https://dronesavings.com/

DJI maintains their own Refub page (DJI refurbs are also on eBay and Amazon at various times:
https://store.dji.com/refurbished?pbc=oUO3hPYG&pm=link&as=0005

The Future

Drone makers are going to have to come up with some tricks to make consumers flock to their new models. In the meanwhile, they are lowering prices and offering more for less in order to make room on the shelves for whatever might come next. The consumer is now in the drivers seat and it looks to stay that way for 2018. Happy Hunting!

We recently started using the Lykus bag (backpack OR shoulder or hand bag – universal o) and find that it holds much more than the Mavic Pro stock (Fly More) bag from DJI. Sure, the DJI bag is more compact so you might find yourself using both – the DJI bag when you do a quickie flight or two, but the Lykus when you are going out for the day or doing some traveling.

Unlike the DJI bag, this one easily holds all the chargers (car and AC) as well as lots of additional goodies you may have for your Mavic – stuff like antenna boosters, ND filters, and much more can fit into this case.

Please check out our video and pics below. An Amazon link to the bag is here.

Click to Enlarge Photos!

Click to Enlarge Photos

Don’t get too excited – YET. But the first truly advanced American company to bring a 4K advanced camera drone to market announced their product this week (mid-Fed. 2017) and claim to be shipping in as little as 2-3 weeks.

With a large R&D team and a first class bundle of Silicon Valley (and other) investors, the Skydio drone does things that no other drone can – specifically, it has advanced follow-me which is claimed (by preliminary reviewers) to really work. We’re talking dodging branches, tree and anything else.

Sure – it is unlikely to sell many at $2499- BUT, the cost of production if a unit like this was made in large quantities could be quite low.

What do you think? Is this the beginning of a real USA effort to get into the consumer drone market?
https://www.skydio.com/

The model was designed and built by a top-notch team including former members of Google’s Project Wing. It is designed as a follow-me model…but uses more advanced technology to truly avoid obstacles, even at relatively high speeds. With 13 cameras and AI (artificial intelligence) borrowed from self-driving cars, this unit claims to have leapfrogged the existing market in terms of autonomy.

Our Initial Take

This is a serious effort undertaken over 4 years by a top-notch team and deep pocket investors. Still, at $2499 and with limited functions it is initially more of a demo of technology than a consumer drone that will sell by the millions. However, take $1K off the price (scale up production) and it could sell decently. Bring it down eventually to under 1K and it may fly off the shelves.

Of course, the usual question has to be asked. One can only imagine the CEO of DJI looking at this unit and immediately ordering a meeting of his design team to make sure them beat it….at 1/2 or less the price. In fact, I would be surprised if this meeting didn’t happen months ago (the insiders probably knew Skydio was working on this). A DJI similar model would certainly include a lot of their “kitchen sink” software and hardware such as an R/C controller to make for more use cases.

The above is, of course, pure speculation – but it is based on the past and on my knowledge of the way DJI works. They, so far, have refused to allow any other company to grab a decent share of the market.

On the other hand, is Skydio can move quickly and get the price down and make the unit more flexible, they will have a willing public as well as potential sales to the US Government, State Agencies and others who may desire to deal with an American company for sensitive sales and uses of the drone and technology.

However, the drone market is one of big numbers – Skydio cannot flourish unless they eventually sell 100’s of thousands of units per year. Perhaps their future is in merging with a larger company that has the resources to establish a true American consumer drone market.

In any case, congratulations to the Skydio Team for an amazing effort and initial product. We wish you success and would love to review a demo or production unit as soon as they are available.

For more info and demo videos, please see https://www.skydio.com/

Some recent articles in business pubs and in SUAS News indicate that most of the “Drone Team” left at GoPro has been given their walking papers.

Bad Karma – GoPro to shutter drone division in February

A valid guess would be that Holiday Sales indicated there is no future in this dated product. This has been, of course, our prediction (guess?) all along due to the way GoPro went about creating and marketing this machine. Predictions were made for 100’s of millions in Revenue when the reality is probably 10% or less of that. Furthermore, reliability is coming into question….lots of crashes and “flyaways”. Our earlier article lays out much of the cas against the GoPro Karma.

GoPro stock has hit a new low – investors have now lost well over 90% of their money from the peak prices.

Karma was rumored to be based on the same basic code (Pixhawk) as the 3DR Solo). Although it’s not my favorite saying, when it comes to the “band of merry men” who make up the “3DR Crew”, many of whom worked also on Karma (and now are on to other ventures), it’s time to “stick a fork in it”. After all, it’s hard to imagine going to a job interview and explaining how your departments lost hundreds of millions of dollars….and then saying “hire me”. For whatever reason(s) the lack of organization, focus and capabilities, etc. has made this “open source” flight controller team into an evaporating force which is now trying to sell $150 toy quadcopters that break after a couple hours of flight. No doubt sooner or later someone will “get it”. On one hand they got rid of Colin Guinn, perhaps the largest exaggerator and therefore poorest marketer in the bunch. But the top management still remains – specifically Chris Andersen. If I were in his shoes I would just admit to myself “hey, I’m not a CEO, I’m not an engineer and I don’t know how to manufacturer”. He did fine as a writer and editor/[publisher and that might be a great place to fall back upon.

GoPro after Crash

Sooner or later I expect some decent stuff to come out of PX4 and those project – but, wow, by the time this happens we will be talking decades….not seasons or years. Also, it is unlikely that the stuff will have any features not already commercially available. Maybe Google can take over the project and make something of it??? [Read more…]

The Drone Report – 2017/2018 (Holiday Period, etc.). – Note – you can pay thousands of dollars for various white papers and guesses as to where the market is headed – many (most) of them are based on questionable data and Hopes & Dreams rather than what is actually happening. While we don’t claim perfection with our report, it does give a number of trends and ideas which are worth considering. NEW – for 2018 we are doing private consulting, speaking, analysis, tutoring and other such Industry efforts. This will mean less of a focus on the Droneflyers.com site…although we are open to partnerships and/or buyers who wish to expand their Drone Web Presence. Please contact us using the form below. 

2017 should be considered a consolidation year for the Drone Market. However, questions still remain as to where we go from here. In order to give this report some structure, we will break it up into various categories as follows:

1. The Consumer Camera Drone Market – these are GPS based drones capable of taking stabilized video. The price range is $400 to $2000.

2. The Light and Medium Commercial segments – which can often crossover with the Consumer Drone Market. A price range of $600-$5,000 will be used for this segment.

3. FPV, Racing and DIY – seems to be an entirely different set of users and suppliers and seems to have revived and innovated.

4. Toy Drones – BIG Sellers in terms of quantity of units, but since the retail prices are lower ($10 – $150 for most units), it may be harder for the competitors to sustain profits and market share.

Consumer Drones

Most of the consumer drone market is controlled by DJI with numerous models in the price range. Other players which may have 2% or larger market share include Parrot (BeBop2), Yuneec, Autel Robotics, Xiaomi and GoPro (Karma Drone). As always, there are a number of other companies trying to muscle in on this market – none seem to have had success.

A subgroup within this category includes mobile controlled GPS models designed for close-in “fun” selfie and follow-me type of shots. Most are based on the Qualcomm SnapDragon reference circuit board which is effectively the “guts” of a camera drone. Wingsland, Hover, Dobby and Yuneec (Breeze) are examples of this type. Sales so far appear to be weak and the prices have dropped from $4-$500 to as low as $199. DJI kept their Spark Drone in two markets by providing an optional remote control – it is also the only model with a mechanical gimbal (vibration-free video) – with discounts, the basic model starts at $350-$400.

Reports from the field, google trends and other indicators show little or no growth in the Consumer Drone segment. One problem is that many pilots already own one or two models which work well – so they are unlikely to buy another until some really advanced features provide them extra value and save them time and money.

This is the first year for GoPro and their Karma Drone and they are surely making SOME sales – however, they are quite late to market and in terms of technology the unit is not at the head of the pack. Suffice it to say that Karma will not be the “game-changer” that GoPro claimed it would…they forecasted sales that would easily make Karma #2 in terms of Drone Revenue and would help save the company from its downward spiral. However, the winner BY FAR of the 2017/2018 Consumer Drone Segment is the DJI Mavic Pro – now available in various packages and colors. It’s safe to say this is a model that will satisfy most hobbyists – and booming sales (Mavic Pro may be the first million-seller model) show that this is what consumers desire.

Our Top Pic – Mavic Pro

Yuneec and Autel are plugging along – both are probably having a difficult time with growth….or with profitability for that matter!

But the real surprise of the Holiday Season may be the possible resurrection of Parrot. After 6 years they finally seem to be learning what people want – an R/C Controller! Their products – from the toys to the BeBop 2 FPV, appear to be hot sellers and their commercial line seems to be expanding nicely. I think they finally got someone in the company that the CEO is listening to. That’s the main thing – when you head the wrong direction and the market tells you so – correct it! Parrot was always ahead of their time but never really carved our a particular consumer market except for toys which didn’t satisfy because they flew away. I have recently succumbed and have one of those winged Parrot toys on the way – for $50 with the R/C I want to see if Parrot has changed. We’ll have a review soon!  [Read more…]

A well kept secret is that drones can be used for BOTH smaller jobs and large building sites. In fact, many small contractors are already using them for jobs as simple as inspecting gutters and roofs on residential and light commercial properties. In some cases, the power of the drone propeller wash can even clean out dry leaves and other debris from a gutter installation.

However, another market is forming at the upper end of construction – where both visuals and measurements are used to monitor and even survey building and development sites. Some higher end models even have infrared cameras which can be used to monitor crop health – as well as helping to find lost persons in the public safety sector.

Books are being written on these many uses – however, we will start with a small infographic that describes some of the models as well as the jobs being accomplished. Keep in mind that the field is moving so quickly that articles such as this may have a limited shelf life when it comes to particular models. For example, the DJI Inspire I mentioned has already been superseded by the newer Inspire 2.

Courtesy of one of our partners, find the infographic below – note you will have to click on it a couple times in order to fully enlarge it – then you can even download the enlarged version.

Some Commercial Models and Current Uses.

A 2 TB DJI Hard Drive? Yes….but……

Seagate sent me one to try out – and I was somewhat surprised that it didn’t have more “DJI class” features and/or options. There is so much that could have been done with it – but as it stands, it’s a USB-C external drive with a rubber bumper and MicroSD slot. The micro slot doesn’t matter at all since you need to hook it to a laptop anyway – and laptops have a card adapter.

Maybe DJI just wanted a quick branded product and didn’t want to invest. Here is my critique – please forward to the team and take it in the spirit in which it is provided.

If you look at the Amazon reviews you get a slight idea that this product lacks innovation. But even worse, for many computer users it doesn’t work at all without buying extra cables (and they may not work).

So let me go in order of improvements….

The Fly Drive comes packaged nicely with the drive itself (2TB), a USB-C cord (power and data transfer) and a rubber bumper case to make it slightly more rugged.

1. Since they decided to use USB-C, they should have included a regular USB adapter. I have three macs and none of them have USB-C. The guy at the Apple Store tells me very few customers have USB-C at this time. As a result, I was unable to use the drive at all when I received it.

I ordered from amazon a USB to USB-C converter. It took a few days to arrive – and when it got here it still didn’t work. The drive powered up but it would not mount. It turns out you need a certain type (one piece…can’t use a Amazon basics USB-C to USB and then a straight USB cord) or the drive will not mount. The guy at the Apple store worked with me on this and we found that the Belkin worked. Amazon since has put together a package with a cable that works – at http://amzn.to/2jJ2NNN

An included adapter would at least make it work – so it wouldn’t be frustrating and a few units might sell without a lot of returns.

Amazon got smart quickly and has a package which includes the proper adapter:
http://amzn.to/2nq4iFJ

With that package it should work on most any computer.

Seagate Fly Drive w/DJI P4A+

How it should be!
I have to assume the team had a very limited scope and budget here. Anyone designing such a drive might consider:
A. Make it rechargeable – again, having to have a computer with you does away with the need for the drive anyway.
B. Make it self-contained – By using a small B&W or status screen and a few buttons (or touch screen), the entire drive would work without any computer. It could be hooked via USB direct to a Drone – and/or the card inserted into it. Then a series of instructions would be presented (move all images and videos to FlyDrive)….and then even a preview (if color screen) or at least a readout of the number of files and size and your software could confirm they are “good” DJI files. Then the option to erase 25%, 50% or 100% could be given. If a color touchscreen was used, even separate files could be erased.
C. Although this might be costly, the ability to upload images and videos from IOS (DJI Go and Go4) could be accomplished in various methods (wired or wireless).

As you see, the entire idea here is portability. If I take my Mavic in the bag, I can slip this drive in – but not my laptop. [Read more…]